Will Making Pretty Mean Making Sensible?

Der Spiegel International published an article recently about the positive public relations spectacles being put forward by the new Hamas government in Gaza. It is interesting to watch the actions taken by Hamas once faced with running a government. The rest of the Middle East is undoubtedly watching, because if the everyday responsibilities of providing good governance manage to make Hamas more sensible, Gaza could serve as a model for incorporating radical elements throughout the region.

The potential for a split between the Gaza Strip and West Bank, a la East and West Pakistan, gained substantial momentum after elections in 2006 produced Hamas victories in Gaza and Fatah victories in West Bank. Many analysts simply claimed that Fatah ran too many candidates in Gaza, and that this bad decision combined with protest votes proved to be their undoing. Others claimed that this proved the necessity of keeping both areas united through some sort of auto or train corridor. Few expected that the possibility of division would manifest itself so quickly.

Yet, now that Hamas has taken control, a completely new set of problems has arisen. They have to provide security and utilities, collect taxes and spend them effectively. Fareed Zakaria suggested in his book, The Future of Freedom, that radical elements such as the Muslim Brotherhood and Hamas be incorporated into governments so that the practicalities of running a country would temper their hard-line agendas. After Fatah refused to hand over the reins to Hamas, Hamas took control for itself. We will have to wait and see whether Zakaria’s idea of moderation comes true.

For now, Hamas PR Advisor Ahmed Yussuf says that Hamas is much less like the Taliban in Afghanistan and more like Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Except that Erdogan isn’t associated with suicide bombers and hasn’t called for Israel to be wiped off the map. While Yussuf’s statements might simply be pretty-talk with the hopes of luring foreign capital into the empty coffers of a desperate Hamas government, it could signal a positive change regardless. While poverty often breeds radicalism, it can also force pragmatism. In order to prevent a popular uprising against itself by Palestinians regretting ever having voted them into power, Hamas will have to provide results. If it wants any help from the West, it will have to make itself look a lot more like Erdogan, and that would be a notable development.

Such a development would impact the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt, Hezbollah in Lebanon and Islamist groups throughout the Middle East. This would be no End of History or Democratic Victory, but it could provide a useful example to other countries. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia and Egypt might try to crush the experiment in its infancy to prevent that example from happening.

The Der Spiegel article is here: http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/0,1518,493812,00.html

Republicans Without a Cause

It looks like Republicans are finally abandoning ship on Bush’s Iraq policy. Hopefully they will latch onto a more moderate policy short of withdrawal, rather than allowing Iraq to continue brewing a new generation of terrorists.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/07/10/AR2007071001424.html

While I’m not crazy enough to support the Iraq War – I promise I thought it was flawed from the beginning – I am one of the increasingly few people who support trying to stick around a little longer. I realize the American people were sold on the war with what turned out to be lies, but some very intelligent people supported it for a completely different, valid reason: in the wake of 9/11, we finally acknowledged the need to shift the dynamic of geopolitics in the Middle East. Unfortunately, the Bush crowd tried to take the short-cut with clean break, domino-theory democratization. Despite the failure of those policies, the need to shift geopolitics remains. Because of the failure of those policies, we are forced to continue the Iraq War to prevent one problem from sprouting in the place of another. In the words of Colin Powell, we broke it and now we have bought it. Iraq was not a serious problem until we made it one of the many we now face.

Forgive the oversimplification, but Saudi money continues to fund Islamist terrorism that will continue to be directed at the United States until we withdraw our support for Middle East regimes and allow civil wars to commence. That isn’t happening anytime soon. Instead, the recommendations of the Iraq Study Group could serve as a good first step. A more proactive policy could yield even better results.

In exchange for one comment to this blog, I would post my suggestion for a “more proactive policy.” I prefer to think of this as effectively allotting my time rather than a shameless plea for validation.

Don't Start No Stuff, Won't Be No Stuff

PostGlobal asked the following question: "Should Taiwan hold a democratic vote on whether to declare independence from China, or do Taiwan's leaders have a greater responsibility to their people to avoid war?"

A vote on independence would be yet another imprudent action taken by President Chen and the Democratic Progressive Party in furtherance of shallow political goals. It seems like this is an attempt to boost approval ratings prior to Taiwan's presidential and legislative elections in 2008, using the Beijing Olympics as blackmail to prevent too strong a Chinese response. Chen is playing with fire, though, and a more wise leader might do well to focus on managing Taiwan's de facto independence, vibrant economy and self governance rather than causing international incidents and potential war. International support for Taiwan is conditioned on maintaining the status quo. If Taiwan changes the status quo, regardless of public support or democratic votes, it would likely face the consequences in infernal solitude (albeit amidst an impotent international outcry). Meanwhile, the enthusiasm for a victory next year by the opposition Kuomintang party continues to grow...